Jay Shambaugh writes for Brookings: “Don’t Let Flashy 3rd Quarter GDP Growth Fool You, The Economy Is Still in A Big Hole”
“When Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data for the third quarter of 2020 is released on October 29, it will almost certainly break records. Many analysts project growth over 30 percent at an annual rate – roughly twice as high as any quarterly growth rate since World War II. “Yet
Read MoreJay Shambaugh quoted in Marketplace article, “Without More Relief Spending, the Recovery’s Likely to Stall”
“One of the biggest infusions was $600-a-week in extra unemployment payments to more than 20 million jobless Americans. That expired in mid-summer, and the amount of cash going out to laid-off workers cratered, according to Jay Shambaugh, an economist at George Washington University. “‘It fell from $110 [billion] in July
Read MoreJay Shambaugh writes in The New York Times: “People Need Money Now. A $1.5 Trillion Deal Can Make It Happen”
“The pandemic brought on the most quick and severe recession that the United States has ever experienced. The economy shed over 22 million jobs in just two months, and contracted at an annualized rate of 32 percent in the second quarter…” Read the full article here: Full Article
Read MoreJay Shambaugh quoted in the Financial Times article, “Trumps Executive Orders Provide Little Money for Jobless”
“‘The $300m is a rounding error compared to what the previous programme was,’ said Jay Shambaugh, an economics professor at George Washington University who has been tracking the numbers. ‘It’s just a massive hole…’” Read the full article here: Full Article
Read MoreJay Shambaugh quoted in the Financial Times article, “‘Difficult Decisions’ Ahead as UK Public Debt Tops Record £2tn”
“A fresh surge in coronavirus cases is putting pressure on governments on both sides of the Atlantic to maintain emergency labour market support mechanisms at a time when politicians had hoped their economies would be gradually returning to normal. ‘This is slowly morphing into long-term unemployment problem,’ said Jay Shambaugh,
Read MoreJay Shambaugh quoted in Financial Times article, “Governments puzzle over how to unwind job protection schemes”
“US temporary job losses are declining, pushing the unemployment rate down from 14.7 per cent in April to 10.2 per cent in July. “But on both sides of the Atlantic, the improvements are showing worrying signs of petering out. “’This is slowly morphing into a long-term unemployment problem,’ said Jay
Read MoreJay Shambaugh quoted in Slate article, “The Extremely Boring Idea That Could Save the Economy”
“We could have avoided this nationwide facepalm if unemployment benefits were designed to rise and fall with the health of the economy, in the first place. ‘Automatic stabilizers prevent you from cutting off things too soon,’ George Washington University professor Jay Shambaugh, who co-edited Recession Ready, and served on Obama’s
Read MoreJay Shambaugh quoted in Axios article, “The Coronavirus Pandemic Has Already Caused Lasting Economic Damage”
“Between the lines: The Hamilton Project’s Wendy Edelberg and Jay Shambaugh warn ‘widespread bankruptcies could fundamentally change the business landscape,’ leading to a substantial imbalance between companies and workers…” Read the full article here: Full Article
Read MoreJay Shambaugh writes with Wendy Edelberg for Brookings’ The Hamilton Project: “How the Pandemic Is Changing the Economy”
“The COVID-19 public health crisis, the economic shock triggered by the pandemic, and public policy, business, and individual responses to the pandemic together have provoked the sharpest and fastest economic downturn in U.S. history. Both the pandemic and the fiscal policy response have ebbed and flowed, and the economy remains
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